I wrote early in 2015 about what I think will happen this year. And unfortunately some of my predictions have come true. I have seen a lo of weaknesses in the global economy and we have been blowing bubbles of epic proportions. Meanwhile our media does everything that it takes to keep the people in a sphere of misinformation.
Under is all my predictions. I will under them make comments on all my predictions and then I will talk more about what the outcomes is for the rest of the year and add a couple of predictions that I see unfold in the next year and into 2016.
Lets talk trends and forecasts:
- In 2015 we see a stock market crash. This stock market crash globally will probably not be the defining one. We do see another round of QE currency printing, but after this one the crashes will come very rapidly and with no real economics in play there will be a continuous infusion of printing and negative interest rates to keep the dead economy alive on life support.
- Continuous increase in debt levels world wide. The Compounding interest game is not over and we believe the only time it will decrease is the end of the current monetary system.
- More financial innovation, more risky lending like Car Title Loans. These types of loans are a sign of people being desperate to keep their head over water from stagnate and decreasing wages combined with inflation in food and commodity prices.
- Gold might be able to break out again to $2000+, but will it be papered over and more manipulation through gold derivative creation by Central Bankers world wide. A rising gold price should be in place in a real market, but since mid 2013 prices have been stagnate.
- More Bail Ins watch Ukraine, Greece, Italy, Spain, maybe Canada, US, Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland??
- Oil prices down to near $35 a barrel as the supply want stop. Can we see the raise of creation of Carbon taxes and Gas taxes as Government oil income comes to a minimum. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102313435. We all know how there is a lot of theories out there, but have anyone thought about that and also a consolidation of power among the petro companies as the small companies are running deficits and might get taken over by the big guys.
- A further move on sanctions on Russia, Russia might get cornered. But we don’t see a move from Russia until maybe next year 2016. We know Russia have a couple of cars to play. Nuclear bombs, gold and US debt. Which one is hard to guess, but I do hope it is not my first guess. I am all for peace and I don’t want a total nuclear holocaust!!!
- Venezuela goes bust and maybe ends up in hyper inflation. With a current 2014 inflation rate of 63.42% as per Tradingeconomics.com A currency reset or a gold standard? It could be a “Black Swan”
- Ukraine hyper inflation? A current inflation of 24.90% can snowball if Ukraine goes into full blown civil war.
- Comex default? It is very possible with a current leverage of paper gold GLD of about 100:1.
- Will we see a crash I fracking junk bond derivatives? Who has bought these and what is the banksters leverage on these assets as Fracking has been in a massive boom.
- Greece exiting the Eurozone and defaulting once more. This can happen as the political turmoil in the failed Collectivist state is getting nearer.
- Will Bitcoin regain power as Bail Ins might become a reality. Bail Ins will scare people all over the world as they find out that their fiat national currencies are not safe in their bank account. We can see many more Cyprus moments.
- Canada will finally have a big collapse of all of it’s raked up debt and a collapse in Real Estate Prices in some areas like Vancouver, Toronto and Alberta with the oil price problems.
- More riots across the world as many collectivists around the world tighten their grip financially and politically. Will we see more civil wars?
- More people waking up and joining people who want to get their freedom back.
Has my predictions come true?
1. A global stock market crash: There has not been any crashes that are defining moments, but we are seeing the start of it with China loosing over $3 Trillions of money over the last month. Over 30% Crash in Chinese stock prices and with over 45% of the stock market has halted in stocks in corporations frozen to keep the selloff from going down too far. This will only make things worth. Here is a great video from philosopher Stefan Molyneux he goes in deep detail on what is happening. China’s Centrally planned approach will only make things a lot worse until the free market regains control and the Chinese market most probably will fall another 30%.
2. The global debt will increase: The global debt has only increased and many are starting to struggle especially those that have massive government debt that will be un-payable. The US now have over $18T in government debt we haven’t even mentioned the $100T of the US unfunded liabilities.
The Global debt is reaching new highs. Here are some great charts that tells all about the global economy:
3. More risky lending: We are seeing more and more risky lending around the world again as people have been told we are in a recovery. The problem is that this recovery is being fueled by a mountain of debt. The mountain of debt coming from Margin Debt gambling in stock markets. Continuous borrowing of money to debt ridden governments who cannot pay their bill with their current tax revenue. Subprime lending starting to emerge again. Canada is about to have a sub prime loan bubble to pop as the US had, mostly BC and Ontario also Alberta is looking not so good as oil prices are down and a new big government party has taken over their provincial government. There are of course Puerto Rico, Greece, France, Great Britain, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy that are suffering for highly leveraged public debt. Canada has it’s biggest issue with private debt.
Most of the countries mentioned above should really go for bankruptcy as the longer they wait the worse the pain will be and the more the oligarchical banks will get money printed to them by central banks and the government will put the debt that is used to bail out insolvent nations and banks on the tax payers liabilities.
4. Gold will break the $2000 mark: This prediction is something I believe less and lee in happening this year. Right now the bankers have regained price fixing of Gold and Silver prices as they use their massive GLD and SLV holding in paper gold and silver which is many times backed 100:1. They use this paper to control the price of precious metals and they have been good at it. Experts are saying the real price of silver should be more around $150 instead of $15. There are also shortages in metals starting to take place with recent halt in silver eagle production by the US mint. The paper price of Gold and Silver might stay stagnate, but the physical metal that you can keep as insurance in your home might have a big premium in the coming months as the global over leveraged markets will start to pop and the bubbles will pop in countries world wide as their over indebted private and public sector cannot pay back the debt they owe as interest rates starts naturally ticking upwards.
We will see a lot of government and central banking intervention and we are seeing it in China now where people who make bets on the economy might get imprisoned.
5. More Bail Ins watch Ukraine, Greece, Italy, Spain, maybe Canada, US, Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland:
We are seeing risk for bailins right as I speak.
The most prominent risk is of course in Greece where banks have been closed for weeks as the politicians decide who will they take money from. The pensioners or the young people by getting into more unsustainable debt. Bail Ins are also talked about in Ukraine as they might be failing to pay their IMF debt. Italy, Spain, Portugal and now even Germans should be warned about the bail in crisis as their main bank Deutche Bank have over $28B in loans to Greece which if they default on will having to go bankrupt and might be forced to take German Depositors money. This is still evolving, but we might see a result soon as Greece by tomorrow has to come up with a solution to it’s sovereign debt crisis which German and other banks fueled by lending to them in the first place.
6. Oil Prices at $35 a barrel: We are still not there, but with current oil prices around $52.16 for WTI Crude. Experts predicted at the same time as I a rise up to $110 a barrel, but it looks like I am very much closer to predicting the right outcome even though I am not spot on, but $17 away from the target I thought by looking at fundamentals. A potential nuclear deal with Iran can open up for Iran to sell oil on the international market and this might be what can push oil down to it’s $35 mark. The shale oil fields in North America has seen a massive slow down as their price is unsustainable for them to make a profit. In Bakken alone almost a 50% drop in wells producing shows how bad the oil price has been for over leveraged frackers.
7. Further sanctions against Russia: We have seen many of them already. It looks like they have slowed down, but Russia seems to have moved away from being an importer to become an self sufficient economy that haven’t been hit as hard as western countries hoped for. In Ukraine the turmoil is even worse and it is mostly not Russia’s fault. Though both NATO and Russia are fighting a proxy war in Ukraine.
8. Venezuela might go bust and end up with a hyperinflation of it’s Bolivar currency: Here is a statement from an article in May the 26th. Venezuela’s bolivar is collapsing. And as night follows day, Venezuela’s annual implied inflation rate is soaring. Last week, the annual inflation rate broke through the 500% level. It now stands at 510%. Read the article here: http://www.cato.org/blog/venezuela-worlds-highest-inflation-rate
This shows that I was right back in early 2015 when I predicted Venezuela to end up in hyper inflationary state. Maybe not yet, but with 510%annual inflation that means Venezuelan salaries would have to go up 5 fold in order to not loose all their purchasing power. Also the US put out an executive order making Venezuela a threat to national security as many bankers from the US made loans that they new would not get repaid by the collectivist state.
9. Ukraine Hyper inflation: As prices in Ukraine have started to sky rocket how much have prices increased. In Ukraine in March the current unofficial inflation rate was around 272% http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/03/01/ukraine-unofficially-has-272-percent-inflation/
This is not at any hyper inflationary level yet, but it shows a trend towards printing more money and the Ukraine might default on it’s IMF loans. The difference between Greece and Ukraine is that Ukraine have it’s own central bank and can print its money at will.
10. Comex default: A COMEX default is not in the books yet, but has the current leverage ratio increased since the start of the year? Right now I can’t find any new numbers on the ratio, but with gold and silver physical shortages developing the leverage ratio of the GLD can have become even higher since I predicted a 2015 default.
11. Fracking Derivative and debt implosion.
It was a good plan, as long as oil prices stayed high. But now, with oil prices half what they were six months ago, there’s tremors in that debt mountain, and concerns that an avalanche could quickly take out the weakest oil companies, which simply won’t be able to generate sufficient revenues to service their debt. Not only that, their collateral is evaporating as well. Goldman Sachs analysts figure that $1 trillion of oil investments are virtually worthless as long as prices stay this low, because marginal fields are simply not worth drilling.
As analyst Ed Westlake at Credit Suisse summed up the trouble in a recent note: “in four years of $100/bbl oil, the global oil and gas industry has taken on a quarter of a trillion dollars in debt, has delivered zero production growth outside of North America and is facing a $1 trillion+ reduction in global revenues.”
Fracking is called a new subprime scheme as many frackers operating costs lie between $50-80. The oil price is now just above $50 meaning most frackers run an unprofitable business where they are over leveraged in debt. If the oil price continues to stay this low. Not very long from now fracking will be a thing of the past until the oil price comes back up again.
12. Greece defaulting on its debt once more and potentially exiting the Eurozone: This has become very true as Greece has defaulted on its debt obligations once more. They are now in the final stages tonight as I write this to see if a bankruptcy and a grexit is the way to go or if they will go the most likely hard way! Another bailout and bank bail in. The thing is that Greek banks can be bankrupt by Monday 13th and the turmoil and wealth confiscation of those who didn’t pull their money in time will start and pensioners will be loosing the most as they saved the most.
Greece has for a long time spent beyond its means and in 2010 they failed to pay their creditors being big banks, but the bailout did not go to the Greek government, but to the big banks as the eurozone wanted to keep it’s banks alive in order to prevent full Euro collapse.
What is certain is that Greece is bankrupt and they will hurt for a while if they manage to stay in the Eurozone or not. If they stay the pain will be more long lived.
The question we should ask ourselves is if the ECB is looking at getting full financial control over all central banks in the eurozone as they are a collectivist idea.
13. Will Bitcoin regain it’s power as Bail Ins will happen?: Certainly the Greek turmoil have moved the prize upwards as people try desperately to find any safe haven to keep the little wealth they have left after the bank holidays started over 2 weeks ago. Here is a chart showing the move. If we see a bail in in Greece be certain the price of Bitcoin in Fiat Currency will move up quite the bit more.
14. Canada will have an economic collapse Alberta through oil, BC and Ontario subprime lending:
Alberta have seen a recession start already as the Alberta oil price almost correlates with the housing prices. When a economy is not well diversified it will have its ups and downs with the commodity prices of the majority produced commodity in that economy. Then we have the propped up housing markets of Toronto and Vancouver. These markets have been over leveraged with debt and when debt becomes over leveraged risks are taken and many subprime loans are made. Like it was in the US. Here are some major subprime lenders in trouble in Canada that can cause a major financial crash in one of the worlds most “secure banking” nations in the world.
Tonight’s first order of business: the part of the financial market that lives in the shadows — less regulated or not regulated at all — is a fast-growing one in Canada.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that it is still relatively small, and, if you’re a borrower who can’t get a loan any other way, perhaps a necessary one. Still, it’s worth asking — if you can’t get a loan any other way, do you really need that loan? And if it’s a mortgage, are you putting yourself and perhaps others at risk, by taking one?
— Amanda Lang
In 2014 subprime lending accounted for about 8% of lending in Ontario. Now the Canadian subprime lending isn’t close to the 24% in the US it might damage he economy quite seriously. Read this article for the Financial Post.
15. More riots around the world: There has been hundreds of riots world wide since I predicted more. Most of these are outcomes of income inequality and frustration coming from the people in many countries. How has the governments responded? In Denmark you will get fined if you insult any public officials. In Spain you will be fined hard if you are attending any protest against the government and you will be fined €30k Euro if you insult a police officer. These laws are draconian and they are meant to intimidate people from speaking out when they are trampled on by governments, big corporations and big banks. We will continue to see riots, protests and other terror attacks until the monetary system is reformed and those in power pushing collectivism and police states step down.
16. More people will wake up to the ideas of individual freedom: Individual freedom should be the cornerstone of any free society. Many people are calling for more government to fix current issues. The problem is that they don’t understand economics. If a government spends more than its tax revenue then it should quickly become insolvent, but what it has done is fraudulently gotten into loans with big banks that the banks and government knew would never get paid back. What has happened through governments and bankers doing this is that more and more people are waking up to freedom oriented thoughts like libertarianism, anarchism and other systems that make you free from the clutches of the big government making you a slave through getting into debt forcing you to pay it back by forcing you to pay taxes.
We will see a lot more things happen as the financial crisis are back and the bankers and governments have become bolder than ever to manipulate stock prices, markets and commodities so everything looks awesome to the general public using our local TV to propagandize us into believing the economy has recovered.
When the government says one thing expect the opposite!
John Thore Stub Sneisen
The Economic Truth